42 million Americans vote early as midterm turnout rivals 2018 record

More than 42 million Americans have cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, a pace that mirrors the high turnout levels seen in 2018. The University of Florida Election Lab reports that this early surge suggests a potential record for the current cycle.

Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, stated that the U.S. could surpass the 2018 midterm turnout, which stood as the highest rate for such an election since 1914. He noted that the current enthusiasm is skewed, with registered Democrats, unaffiliated voters, and independent candidates engaging at higher rates than registered Republicans.

The data reveals a distinct partisan split in early voting behavior. Democrats account for 44% of the early votes, while Republicans make up approximately 31%. McDonald indicated that this gap reflects a broader trend of higher engagement among young voters and minority groups, including African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans, compared to white voters.

However, the early numbers do not represent the entire electorate. McDonald explained that states such as Maine, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska have lower rates of early voting, with roughly one-third of their ballots cast before Election Day. These states contrast sharply with jurisdictions that rely heavily on mail-in ballots or extensive in-person early voting periods.

Political scientists caution that the early lead may shift as the election approaches. McDonald projected that Republicans are likely to close some of the gap on Election Day. Final results for the 2026 midterms will not be announced until after polling places close on Tuesday, November 3.