Economic worries push voters to back Democrats in midterm race

President Donald Trump's disapproval rating has reached 60%, the highest level recorded in NBC News polls during his two terms. This figure comes as Democrats hold a 7-point lead in the race for Congress ahead of the midterms on Tuesday.

The survey, conducted between October 28 and 30, found that 52% of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 45% favor Republican control. This margin is two points higher than in the previous month's poll. Among independent voters, the gap is 21 points. The survey also noted that 3% of respondents remained undecided, a group that could determine outcomes in tight races for the House and Senate.

Economic anxiety drives much of the dissatisfaction with the administration. Nearly three-quarters of voters say they are unhappy with the current economic situation. For the first time in 30 years of polling by NBC News, more voters (51%) report being dissatisfied with their personal finances than satisfied (49%). About two-thirds of voters want a change in the direction of the country, with 50% calling for a "deep" change.

Despite the overall advantage for Democrats, the party faces a popularity deficit. Only 29% of voters have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, compared to 38% for the Republican Party. Roughly half of all voters hold a negative opinion of both major parties. Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster at Hart Research Associates, described the presidential election as a test of past promises against imminent political risk. He noted that while Trump promised economic prosperity, voters are now focused on rising prices amid the conflict with Irán.

Republican support is fraying in key areas. Among Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement, 54% approve of Trump while 46% disapprove. A 20% segment of these non-MAGA Republicans says they would prefer Democrats to control Congress after the election. In states Trump won in 2024, his approval rating is negative at 47% to 53% disapproval, a drop of 10 points since March 2025. Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster, stated that Democrats currently control the agenda for 2026, particularly on issues like inflation and the cost of living.

Voter enthusiasm for the midterms is high, with 70% of respondents rating their interest in the election at 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale. Democrats lead by 12 points among the most engaged voters. The poll also found that Democrats hold a 5-point advantage over Republicans in how well they would manage issues related to transgender people, despite Republican campaign attacks on the topic.

Mike Johnson, the House speaker from Louisiana, holds the highest favorable rating among congressional leaders at 24%, though 34% view him negatively. The race for the Senate remains particularly challenging for Democrats, who must win at least two states where Trump carried the state by double-digit margins in 2024.